Sanity check warns EVs and heat pumps deliver “no proven carbon savings” ahead of 2030 clean power target 

Turbines are being shut down because the grid can't accept the energy

UK electric vehicles and heat pumps have not yet delivered any proven carbon savings and may offer little benefit even with a decarbonised grid, according to a major new analysis by researchers at Queen Mary University of London. The study argues that current net‑zero policy is “misplaced”, with the UK prioritising electrification before it has enough clean power to support it.  

The researchers — Professor Alan Drew and Professor David Dunstan — re‑examined the UK’s plans to decarbonise electricity generation by 2030 using real‑world 2023 data. They found that the variability of wind and solar power has been “grossly underestimated”, leaving substantial gaps in supply that must still be met by gas‑fired power stations. Because EVs and heat pumps increase electricity demand during these shortfalls, the study concludes they currently offer no measurable emissions savings.  

Grid can't keep up with turbines

The paper highlights rapidly rising costs from wind curtailment — when turbines are paid to shut down because the grid cannot accept the energy. Curtailment cost more than £1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach a cumulative £20 billion by 2030 without major grid upgrades and new ways of using surplus renewable power.  

Instead of accelerating electrification, the authors say the UK should focus urgently on four priorities: 

• Strengthening the electricity grid to reduce curtailment of wind generation in order to carry the generated power from source to demand; 

• Accelerating the installation of renewable generation such as wind and solar and low-carbon energy generation; 

• At the same time, introduce technologies that can absorb the large surplus of renewable energy, such as green hydrogen production or synthetic fuel generation; 

• Rapidly introducing carbon capture and storage for gas plants, which will continue to run for roughly half of all hours in 2030; 

Described as a “sanity check”, the study challenges several common assumptions in net‑zero planning. The authors argue that EVs and heat pumps will play an important role in the future — but only once the UK has significant surplus clean generation. 

Urgent rethink needed

Professor Alan Drew from the School of Physical and Chemical Sciences at Queen Mary University of London said: 

“The UK urgently needs to rethink its priorities. EVs and heat pumps will be valuable later — but for now, we must stop pretending they are reducing emissions when the data shows they aren’t. The real work right now is strengthening the grid, building renewables and addressing the enormous challenge storage for surplus electricity that renewables create.” 

Professor David Dunstan added: 

“We hope this paper empowers policymakers and the public to engage with the real numbers. Decarbonisation is achievable — but only if we focus on the bottlenecks that matter.” 

The authors stress that their intent is to help decision‑makers prioritise what will actually make the UK power system cleaner, faster, rather than relying on optimistic assumptions about storage that does not yet exist at scale, or about electrification benefits that have not yet materialised. 

https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ae4235